Military expert Konstantin Sivková about why stalled offensive by government forces against terrorists in Syria, why Assad’s troops received the Turkish border and has not entered into “Idlibský boiler”, and why it is necessary to expand the group of air forces of the Russian Federation in Syria.
Alexander Fateev: The broadcast of the program “Vzgljajd”. Today is our guest, Doctor of Military Sciences, a military expert Konstantin Valentinovič Sivková. The second week of action proceeds Air-cosmic forces of the Russian Federation in support of the Syrian army in the war against international terrorism. How, in your opinion ongoing hostilities after the air strikes our pilots in positions of terrorists? What is the situation on the battlefield?
Konstantin Sivkov: Strictly speaking, the result of this group was able to organize on October 7 at the close of the queue in the direction of Idlib successful offensive operation. The pace of the attack reached during the first day of around 70 kilometers. During the next 2-3 days, the pace has decreased, but still ran a successful military operations which enable to create a cauldron in which the Al-Nusra Front.
But then the pace slowed sharply Syrian Army. Progress is measured in units of kilometers a day. Yes, they occupied some inhabited place. However, the procedure is zasavil. Meanwhile, the Islamic State was able to organize a counter-attack in other places, to disengage forces.
One of the most unpleasant moments was that in the period October 13 to 14 carried out a successful attack Islamic state in the direction of Aleppo, during which the units were dismantled by the SSA (the Free Syrian Army – protiasadovské ed.), They came under pressure the Islamic state and even pushed the Syrian government forces.
They began active operations in Damascus. All this has forced the Syrian army, which did not complete defeat of the enemy in the so-called. “Idlibském boiler”. A completed its operations in the northern direction, reached the Turkish border, nepřeskupila and does not perform offensive operations. The operation is now underway in Damascus. The aim is to dislodge the militants from the suburbs of Damascus and evacuate the frontline to the south.
AF: It appears in fact that many expected, including the Russian experts called. “Idlibský boiler”, does not take place? The army of the “Islamic state” carries out active counter-attacks in other areas. Near Damascus and the south. A Syrian army is forced to move only forces that were allocated to the siege and destruction of the Islamic State of Al-Nusra Front in the Northeast. They can not liberate the city of Aleppo, which is located in oklíčení four years, which is more than the continued blockade of Leningrad during the Great Patriotic War. It seems that Idlibský boiler does not?
KS: There is a clear violation of common scenarios when one operation is not completed and begin to move forces to another location. This is the first sign that the overall plan of operation is disrupted, and the failure to achieve targets. Pay attention to one more important thing that the Russian aircraft has dramatically increased the number of sorties. In the early days it was 20 to 25 sorties a day. Today, that number is up to 90 sorties a day.
I want to remind that the maximum intensity of the use of front-line attack aircraft and two flights a day. Everything that is beyond the scope of this regime is fraught with problems in ensuring the operability of equipment and overloaded aircraft crew. Without further increase our Air Forces Group will be impossible to ensure an increase in the intensity of events.
AF: But if the group will grow, then we need not only to increase the military presence, we need to have a military-technical base? For Latakia airport with a total increase our vzdušnýc forces will have only one landing strip. Ensure greater number of sorties can not physically, because if we speak “civil language”, we are limited by the size of the military airport. So, we will have to prepare or seek yet another airport?
KS: We are talking about increases in operating capacity. Airport Latakia has the operational capacity, according to all the characteristics that are publicly known, somewhere in the range of about 60 aircraft. Now limit has been reached, due to the fact that there is a 22 helicopters, and about 45 – 50 planes – that is already limit. Either it will need to do another air base or expand the airport, which means build.
The most annoying thing is that in case of expansion of the airport there will be a large concentration of our aircraft in a limited space, which makes them vulnerable against combat attacks by Islamic law, and perhaps even the Air Force of the countries that want to intervene in the conflict against Russia. For this reason, it is desirable to prepare another airport. I think one of the most effective steps were decided, through diplomatic channels, the question about the possibility of granting Russian Air Force airport network in Iran.
After laboring in the territory of Iran, partly on the territory of Iraq against the Islamic State of Iraq and asked about it, and partly on the territory of Syria, where we can develop a decent group. Right across the Caspian Sea and Iran we have access and communication to ensure the activities of our group. There, we could develop an important group numbering 100-120 aircraft to 2-3 airports, which they can give us Iranians.
Yes, you can use long-range aircraft, operate from airports in our Dagestan, ie. From the Caspian Sea. With a radius of 2,500 kilometers of flight and combat load of 7-10 tons, could successfully attack through the territory of Iran and Iraq on targets in Syria. At the same time understand that the plane TU-22 M have a much smaller precision bombing than frontline bombers and scattering large enough. But so far the use of these aircraft do not speak, although they may also be used.
AF: And we support our Air-Space group that works directly in the theater of military operations in Syria precision weapons from Russia? Recent strikes missiles “Caliber” from the Caspian Sea through the territory of Iran and Iraq to the terrorists, for example. For so long distance missiles hit all targets, at least according to the statement of the Ministry of Defence.
KS: Consumption of weapons on a target destroyed was only 2 rockets and a few targets were destroyed using 3 missiles. So, two missiles at a single target – this is a very low power consumption weapons, which indicates the high precision and reliability targets the destruction of the missiles. For Americans is usually assigned to the target class “command center” somewhere around 3-4 shots. It should also be noted that in fact the volley of 26 rockets involved in a part of the Caspian fleet that is capable of carrying missiles. It has 4 boats, 3 and 1 small rocket ship type “Cheetah”. Each of these vessels has eight carriers and each four missiles. This is a 32 rockets, 26 of which fired. What turn our attention? The second salvo, can be performed after 3 days have passed since then about a week.
AF: So it was a single event, which was to show that we can hit from the other direction?
KS: Exactly. And it seems that due to the tense situation in Syria, given that the Russian aviation group has its limits, that it was not a second salvo suggests that, by all accounts, stocks of such weapons in Russia are not, or are limited Lubrication (Or are they similar purposes pointless and expensive – ed.).
AF: The mission of the Russian air forces in Syria – the volume of these missions even threefold increase. All interventions bases, factories, bunkers where they sit bigwigs terrorists also bring efficiency. But a decision victory over Islamic state in the shortest possible time, not a speech. What is happening in reality?
KS: Firstly, it should be noted that the composition of the group, which has Russia on Syria to act effectively allows only one operating direction. The second moment is that our aircraft can attack with regard to weapons used primarily against stationary objects associated with the system operational logistics and operational management of the Islamic state.
Impact on the IS control system, and the real impact on the effectiveness of the events in the first line does not. Disruption of management at the tactical level at the IS recover within two or three days. Terrorists with regard to tactics reminiscent of their behavior guerrillas who operate with one goal. Destruction of the operating management level only for a while cripple their operational maneuvers. IS fighting capability remains constant, they have their own local supply networks.
And here today, the United States sent weapons and ammunition, and effectively negate the actions of our air force to destroy the rear. Armament safely delivered in different ways, different trucks, passenger cars at positions radicals.
AF: Your prediction for combat events in Syria for the next two weeks. What can you expect?
KS: I think in the next two weeks, the manpower of Russian forces increase. The number of aircraft are expected to increase due to expansion of the operating capacity of the base Hmeymim near Latakia to 60-70 aircraft. The intensity of usage will increase to 120 to 140 sorties, which allows action in two operation directions and act against these groups.
I hope and believe that the working group formed an operational transport capacity to ensure that Syria delivery of a sufficient quantity of ammunition so as to launch large-scale offensive with massive use of artillery somewhere in the coming week. Offensive allow radically solve problems as Idlibském direction, even in those areas that are currently being weakened in the first row south direction, there ensure the stability of the stack.
I believe, and it is quite possible that will be addressed using the remote air force against the Islamic state, especially in the rear areas. It is quite possible that they will be in Syria, in order to ensure interaction with Syrian units being moved helicopter units. They can be helicopters MI-28N.
On the other hand, the United States will most likely increase the supply of military equipment. I do not exclude that in order to damage the Russian Air Force to provide more powerful air defense systems, not only portable air defense systems, but also more powerful.
Within two weeks, the voltage will increase the intensity of operations Russian forces and gunmen from the IS will intensify.
I suppose that IS will send large contingents of fighters, I am convinced that they will předislokovány from the territory of Afghanistan and transported only way possible – US military transport aircraft as a common border of Afghanistan and Syria have, and other means of transport within a reasonable timeframe as well.
For the United States, it is vital – not to allow the Russian victory in the region.
Like the victory over IS Bashar al-Assad, Russian victory in this area – it will mean that Americans, at least in the short term, over the next 10-15 years will lose the opportunity to secure control over the region. And that can not happen. Therefore, at any price, encouraging anyone will do everything in their capacity to defeat Assad and to defeat a group of Russian troops. Therefore, in the next two weeks, the armed conflict in Syria only grow, there will be new area of confrontation.